Katrina Rewrites N.O. Politics
Mayor's race reduced to a question mark
By GORDON RUSSEL

October 23, 2005

Two months ago, it looked as though New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin would walk into a second term with only token opposition.

Then Hurricane Katrina roared into town, trashing much of the city's building stock and irrevocably altering its political landscape in the process.

Precisely how it's been changed -- and to what degree -- is an open question.

It's unknown how many people will have returned by the mayoral primary in February, if indeed an election can be held that soon. It's also unclear what efforts will be made to seek votes from the tens of thousands of displaced New Orleanians -- and whether those who have settled in, say, Houston will care to cast a ballot.

"There are just so many unknowns," said political science professor Susan Howell of the University of New Orleans. "The political landscape changes virtually every month. It's impossible to say what an election in February is even going to look like.

"I suspect people not planning to come back will not even care. It seems to me the electorate is going to be more upscale and more white than it was, but what the numbers are going to be, who knows?"

What seems clear is that the mayor is far more vulnerable than he was in the lazy days of summer before the storm rolled in. All over town, there is talk of possible big-name candidates, although no one has officially announced.

Nagin has detected the rumblings.

"I hear a lot of noise from the political world and I hear noise from people that are connected to politicians," he said. "There's a lot of people beating their chests, and there's a lot of bravado out there. I'm kind of amused by it. You know, who wants this job?"

Still, Nagin said there's nothing to rumors that he won't seek a second term.

"I get frustrated every now and then, but I have to see this through," he said. "I'm here for a reason at this time and space, so I'm going to play the cards that are dealt."

Candidates 'flying blind'

Speculation about a changing demographic has led some white politicians, who in the pre-Katrina days wouldn't have considered a run, to start exploratory discussions. But Ed Renwick, director of Loyola University's Institute of Politics, said anyone mulling a bid likely will have to rely on gut instinct rather than precise voter data.

"The candidates are going to be flying blind to a degree," Renwick said.

Though Renwick said he hasn't done a poll -- doing one at this point would be logistically impossible, he said -- his sense is that the mayor has been hurt.

"I think the bloom is off the rose," he said. "I used to hear a lot of favorable comments about the mayor. But in the last few weeks, there's been a tremendous drop in those. As of three months ago, you hardly heard of anyone running. Now every day you hear of someone thinking of running for mayor. So there's been a shift in people's minds."

Equally unscientific anecdotal evidence comes from the Metro Three boutique on Magazine Street, which has been selling "Nagin for President" T-shirts like hotcakes, according to store co-owner Lori Laney.

"My husband makes our shirt and he's put in some long nights this week trying to keep up with the demand," Laney said.

She added: Nagin is "a human being, not perfect, but who is? Judging what our customers are saying by buying so many of these shirts, he is doing a doggone good job."

Renwick said anyone who does jump into the race will have plenty of powerful imagery for TV commercials, from people stranded on rooftops to police brutality and looting to the human misery of the Superdome and Convention Center.

"There's a whole variety of actual problems which have political potential," he said.

But with so many variables involved in terms of who will vote, it's unclear how or where a candidate would want to disseminate those images.

Voting logistics

Howell said she assumes registered voters will be able to vote. But elections officials may have difficulty finding them. Last week, officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency refused to give Secretary of State Al Ater the names and addresses of evacuees on privacy grounds.

There's a possibility the election could be postponed, something Nagin said would be a "terrible mistake." If a solution that works for displaced voters isn't worked out, Xavier University political scientist Silas Lee warned, there will be questions about disenfranchisement.

"You have thousands of people displaced by a natural disaster, but they're still legally residents of New Orleans, and they should have the right to vote," he said.

If voters are all over the country, running for mayor could prove very expensive, which would help Nagin, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"As a practical matter, you may have to run a multistate campaign to be mayor of New Orleans," he said. "If anyone who challenges him actually threatens him, it will be someone wealthy."

For his part, Nagin said he welcomes a vigorous debate on his leadership and the direction the city should take.

"I'd love to see a pretty spirited election," he said. "My people think I'm crazy. But I really would. Some of the names . . . boy, I'd love to, I mean, I want to compete against the best. So, I'd love to see them jump in there. But they better come correct."

While Nagin recognizes there will be second-guessing of his performance, he thinks his presence in the city during Katrina and its aftermath will help him.

"When the storm hit, I was there," he said. "After the storm, I was there. I walked around and talked to the people that were suffering. . . . I don't have to talk to anybody about what happened. I saw it. And if you're going to judge me from a leadership standpoint of what I've done and what I've been able to do, then if that's the mark, then I should be OK."